The Pathway to the Promised Land: The Championship Favourites 2016/17

The promised land of The Premier League is one of riches, sponsorships and incredible revenue for football club owners. With an £8.3 billion television deal to be carved up between 20 clubs, chairman everywhere have £ signs in their eyes and dreams of a seat at the top table. To reach heaven though, you often have to go through hell and that’s what many players will be thinking as they gear up for the 46 game onslaught. The Sky Bet Championship is widely regarded as the toughest league out there with unique physical demands placed on the players week in, week out. The fans love it though.

It’s difficult to place an exact amount on the value of promotion from the Sky Bet Championship, but many figures now place the sum at around £200 million. When Crystal Palace can bid £30 million plus for Belgium International Christian Benteke, you know common sense has taken a back seat and the money’s talking.

Goals and a decent defence are what’s needed to attain promotion in a division where no-one blinks if top beats bottom by a three goal deficit. As Middlesborough and Burnley found last season, a decent defence will put you up there, but it’s an Andre Gray or Jordon Rhodes that takes you up.

Those who were relegated from the summit of The Premier League enjoy even greater rewards for their failure. The recently agreed Parachute Payments are staggered over three consecutive years with £40 million paid in 16/17, then £33 million and £14 million thereafter. It’s not rocket science then that the majority of bookmakers have installed the three relegated clubs as the clear favourites to bounce back: Newcastle, Aston Villa and Norwich.

This is no certainty by any means, nothing ever is in The Championship. The relegated clubs will soon find out they’re a prized scalp for some and that others have their own ambitions. The budgets for all teams has increased and don’t be surprised if many break their transfer record or increase their wage structure. Out of the remaining teams, the bookies make two the standouts: Derby and Sheffield Wednesday.

Newcastle United to be Promoted 

Newcastle United are one of if not the biggest club in The Championship. To borrow a quote from their manager – ‘Fact’. A multi-millionaire owner whose not afraid to dip into his pocket, a passionate fan base, a top manager and a 52,000 plus seater stadium are all the tools you’d think any team needed to be successful.

In the history of The Championship, no club has had a manager with the CV of Rafa Benitez. A Champions League, La Liga, FA Cup and Europa League winner, the former Liverpool manager is more used to planning a team to combat Barcelona than Brentford. This league is a unique beast altogether and herein may lie the biggest challenge for a man who was in charge of Real Madrid less than 12 months ago. Many were surprised when Benitez agreed to stay on after The Magpies relegation, with a return to La Liga or Serie A expected. Time will tell if Benitez knows what he’s let himself in for.

Player-wise, after the departure of Andros Townsend there’s been speculation of an expected exodus with the likes of Sissoko, Wijnaldum and Coloccini at the top of the list to follow. International players who impressed at various times, these three especially incurred the fans ire with many believing they’d downed tools in the second half of last season. Mitrovic and Perez demonstrated their ability in flashes and it would be no surprise to see them snapped up by teams operating at a higher level.

Benitez has always built around his teams being difficult to score against, with a solid defensive pairing. Geordies everywhere will be hoping that Jamal Lascalles and Chancel Mbemba are going nowhere as a coach who moulded the partnerships of Ayala-Pellegrino and Hyppia-Carragher can certainly develop young, promising centre halves. The fact Benitez himself stated that Lascelles has a great future and could play for ten years at the highest level won’t exactly dampen expectations. If Tim Krul can recover his form before his injuries, Jonjo Shelvey reminds us why he has an England cap and Rolando Arrons demonstrates what all the early fuss was about, then you’re looking at one automatic promotion spot filled.

Newcastle United have signed Dwight Gayle from Crystal Palace for £10m. #NUFC pic.twitter.com/75OlkqYNT9

— Accumulator Tips⚽ (@bettingslip) July 1, 2016

The Magpies have been active early and the two signings they’ve made – Dwight Gayle and Matt Ritchie seem shrewd buys. Both of these have shown they’ve got the ability to play in The Premier League and it was noteable that Gayle, with a 1 in 3 ratio at Crystal Palace, mentioned Benitez as a swaying factor. Ritchie, a Scottish winger bought in from Bournemouth, admitted that he couldn’t turn down the chance to work with Benitez even if it meant dropping down a level. For a player linked with Manchester United at the end of last year, this seems high praise indeed.

“It’s exciting times to be a Newcastle United fan. With Rafa Benitez continuing on as manager there is plenty to be optimistic about. We have made several very, very good signings in Dwight Gayle, Matt Ritchie, Jesus Gamez, Mats Selz and hopefully soon, Isaac Hayden. These signings demonstrate that not only does Rafa mean business this coming season, but for the Premier League also. (Should we achieve it).

I think there will be a lot of pressure on this group of players who are at the shortest odds to win the Championship that there have ever been. But I think for some of the fringe players – Rolando Aarons for example – it could be a perfect opportunity to cement their place in the squad. We expect promotion, but know it will be a long and tough season.

With Rafa at the helm, life hasn’t been as optimistic as when the great Sir Bobby Robson was here. We hope they can take the feel good factor at the club and put in on the pitch. I think we will gain automatic promotion, however, I didn’t think we would go down last season, so let’s see what happens! It’s sure to be an exciting season.” Dave – AbsoluteNewcastle.co.uk

The task and the expectations for manager and club are simple – bounce back at the first time of asking. Chris Hughton achieved it with a record points total. Nothing less will be deemed a success by the St James’ faithful.

Aston Villa to be Promoted

After a season that rivalled Game Of Thrones for its drama and Eastenders for its misery, there’s nothing you could say that hasn’t already been written. The recent £76 million takeover at Villa Park by Dr Tony Xia appears to have brought fresh optimism with many Villains hoping that riches from the Far East are about to be lavished upon their club. With rumours circulating of £30 million plus being set aside for player acquisitions, the Holte End could be bouncing sooner than many think.

Newcastle aren’t the only team with a Champions League winning manager in their midst after the surprise appointment of Roberto Di Matteo. Nigel Pearson appeared the nailed on favourite with the announcement seeming merely a formality, but a change of heart followed by a move to Midlands rivals Derby opened the door to the former Chelsea manager. Life as the main man hasn’t always been plain sailing for Di Matteo though. After two trophies in one season with the Stamford Bridge club, the boot followed by unsuccessful spells at West Brom and more recently Schalke have tainted the Italians reputation. Di Matteo is in unchartered territory here and it’ll be interesting to see how the fans react if they don’t hit the ground running. The advice and experience of Steve Clarke could be a crucial factor.

Xia has been at pains to point out that he won’t interfere in transfers, which seems good news for Di Matteo. He needs to get to work on a squad where the most telling factors in recent times have been that the Player Of The Year Awards were cancelled and Stilian ‘Stan’ Petrov will return to training after beating Leaukemia. That’s a story that everyone in football will be cheered to see and brings a smile to your face.

Player wise, Villa fans don’t seem as though they’d be distraught to see any one of the current crop leave. The likes of N’Zgobia, Hutton and Okore (you could go on) could all easily be shipped out, with the biggest challenge no doubt finding any takers. It’s hard to believe that Agbonlahor, Richards and Lescott have England Caps to their name and you can’t see any club desperate to take on an ageing trio with inflated salaries. I wouldn’t go digging that phone out my pocket just yet if I were Joleon. Jordon Ayew would be an exception to the rule as the former Lorient Striker showed real flashes of ability to rival his brother Andrew. Clubs from the top division and further afield will no doubt come calling.

The only notable purchase so far has been Tommy Elphick, a £3 million centre half from Bournemouth who seems certain to be a starter and will hopefully bring a steel to the backline. Di Matteo has at least four options, so it’ll be interesting to see who he pairs the former Cherries captain with. Arron Tshibola is an unknown quantity to many, but definitely not Clarke who worked with the youngster at Reading. With rumours of a £5 million bid being accepted and a medical set to happen soon, Villa will be hoping to get this one done and dusted as Celtic and Crystal Palace reportedly lurk. Any player that Jaap Stam describes as having ‘so much quality’ must have something about them, especially considering he’s been with the Ajax academy in recent years.

“It’s been a depressing 12 months for Aston Villa supporters as relegation chatter was relentless just a handful of games into the 2015/16 season. We never looked capable of hauling ourselves from the drop zone throughout the tortuous campaign so thoughts switched to how we’d fare in the Championship in 2016/17.

Given the manner of our relegation, the amount of ‘bad eggs’ in the squad, and the lack of movement on the takeover front, I was very pessimistic on our promotion hopes in the Championship. But now we have a new rich and ambitious owner, a pragmatic head coach and experienced backroom staff, plus plans to make large-scale changes to the underperforming playing squad, I fully believe we can bounce back.

I expect Newcastle United and perhaps Norwich City to offer some resistance to our bid for automatic promotion, but I’m fully confident of a top-six finish at least. There’s still plenty of work to do, with manager Di Matteo suggesting the club are going to axe a lot of faces to cut the wage bill and breed a younger team, but the squad that is left is sure to be competitive.

With Di Matteo and Steve Clarke as manager and assistant, we should be an effective counter-attacking team in the Championship next season, relying on the pace and industry on the break to catch opponents off guard. Throughout the season, I’m sure the playing style will gradually be adapted, but if we’re focusing on not conceding goals, we’re at least not losing games.

It does appear we will sign another striker this summer, and all the signs are pointing to a prolific goalscorer from the Football League. The beauty of counter attacking styles is that so much emphasis is placed on getting the ball to the centre-forward as much as possible in a speedy fashion, so goals could ensure from whoever is next through the door. I predict Aston Villa to reach the playoffs minimum this season. It may not be straight-forward as it’s our first season in the Championship, but come May I think we will at least be in the top-six.” Crippy Cooke – @Crippy4Villa

Villa fans will be hoping these aren’t the only incomings at Bodymoor Heath, although they won’t be surprised or disappointed by exits either. Their expectation is the same – bounce back at the first time of asking. Neither of these wants to end up another Leeds.

Norwich to be Promoted

At one stage last season, you had to believe that Norwich we’re going to be safe. The Canaries we’re always hovering around that area but there was a real belief that with their style of football, unity and a young, talented manager they’d get clear. The £8.5 million fee for Steven Naismith seemed an inspired bit of business with many other clubs wondering how they’d missed that one. Alas, it wasn’t to be and Norwich find themselves in the West Brom role of old, bouncing between divisions.

Out of the clubs that have gone done, Norwich maybe the ones that seem the most stable and the club that needs to change the least. It’s easy to counter by saying they only scored 29 goals and shipped 67, but there’s a nucleus of a top Championship team already there. The biggest feather in the cap for the Carrow Road club is that they carry something none of the other relegated clubs have: a manager whose been promoted from this league.

After a distinguished, but unremarkable career at Hamilton Accies, Alex Neill moved into a Player-Manager role and the rest as they say is history. Having guided the Accies to a play-off win, Norwich came calling to the surprise of many. 17 wins out of 25 games in 14/15 and another play-off victory demonstrates Neil knows how to get it done the hard way. At the young managerial age of 35, last season would have hurt Neil, but you sense he’s got the desire and no doubt the ability and experience to navigate this league.

Nathan Redmond is a big loss, but an £11 million move to Southampton was too good to turn down for the young, flying winger. Mbokani was something of a cult figure for some East Anglian’s, but returns to Dynamo Kiev having plundered 7 in 29. Not numbers to shout about, but the Congo powerhouse may have been well suited to the more physical championship. Norwich maybe set to replace him with Britt Assombalonga, with strong rumours of a £7 million bid circulating. The Forest striker registered 16 in 33 for his current club and could be a popular move. On the other side, he’s been out for over a year with a serious injury so there’s unanswered questions. There’s a risk factor, but everyone knows about the troubles Forest have and £7 million could be inspired.

“The Championship is a notoriously difficult league to predict and any attempts to try can leave you easily leave you appearing the fool. That said, Norwich should find themselves in the promotion picture (be it automatic or play-off) come May.

Whilst not spending silly money in the top-flight last season condemned us to relegation, the flip side of that is the squad is still much the same that sparkled in the division under Alex Neil previously.

Most City fans feel quality additions up top and at centre half are vital, but wholesale changes aren’t required. In all, expectations are high and anything less than promotion would probably be deemed a failure.” Andrew – AlongComeNorwich.co.uk

The core of this squad has experienced the highs and lows in recent years. Russell Martin and Seb Bassong seems a good partnership at this level and John Ruddy is more than able, so don’t expect to see 67 goals fly in their net. Naismith is a cut above this level and we all know Cameron Jerome loves The Championship. Add in Britt and don’t lose anyone…..it would be a brave man that bet against Alex Neil.

Derby County to be Promoted

It’s been Groundhog Day for the last few years at the I-Pro Stadium. A well known football figure, known for their coaching style comes in and breeds an early excitement. Then as the business end begins and the points matter more and more, The Rams seem to choke. Exit talented ahead coach stage left. Steve McLaren and Paul Clement both have impressive CVs, you can’t argue with that for one second. You can’t argue that both seemed unable to work out what was required to be successful in The Championship too. This time around, Derby may just have a game changer in place.

Nigel Pearson to Aston Villa seemed the worst kept secret of the summer. It dragged on and Pearson even confessed to meeting with Villa’s hierarchy. By some semblance of events, he finds himself in the Derby hot seat and you won’t find too many Rams upset about this one. An uncompromising defender in his playing career, management doesn’t seem to have changed the inner steel that lurks within the former ‘Boro stopper. Pearson has experience of the lower leagues from his considerable experience with Carlisle, Hull and Leicester. More importantly, having with two of those clubs, he knows what’s required to be successful and will waste no time in implementing his strategy.

Derby have a real mix of experienced players and young players with real talent and promise. Go through their squad and there’s many players that Premier League Clubs would want to take and develop, so wholesale changes may not be needed. Tom Ince is one of this leagues top talents and at 24 still has development in him. Delle Alli becoming England’s new hope may bode well for Will Hughes as the midfielder can begin to deliver on his promise with less focus and spotlight. A big challenge could also be holding onto Jeff Hendricks after his exploits at Euro 2016 with Ireland. A £3.5 million bid from Burnley seems derisory though when the same club rates Michael Keane and £10 million plus.

Marcus Olsson is the only note able arrival to date from Blackburn and seems a solid move at this level. The second most talented of the twins, he still possesses pace and seems a good replacement for the departing Steven Warnock. A few squad players like Shotton have left, but nothing for the fans to be concerned about. You’d have to feel there’s still a few arrivals to come through the door at Moor Farm before the summer is out though.

“Derby’s ability to fall at the final hurdle has been well documented over the last three years. Although our defeat to QPR at Wembley remains the biggest travesty in play off history, in the last two seasons we have simply imploded when we had one foot in the Premier League.

Derby more than any other team need to fin the missing ingredient and hopefully Nigel Pearson is it. We have done sexy football with some success but now we need to learn how to win ugly as well. If Pearson brings that, then there is no reason why we can’t be fighting with the three relegated sides for a top two spot.” Chris – RamSpace.co.uk

That maybe all it takes this time. Derby’s price is more of a reflection on their status as The Spurs of The Championship – fall away when it gets tough. The man in the hot seat lives for those sort of moments. Pearson has that nous at this level that Real Madrid and England couldn’t teach others. He was Aston Villa’s choice and Derby fans won’t be shy in reminding them of that. Time will tell if it was a right one, but there will be money lumped on at those odds.

Sheffield Wednesday to be Promoted

The Owls were last seasons great entertainers and despite play-off heartache, the fans had to have enjoyed the ride. Watchers of the The Championship may well have found themselves breaking out into an unexpected quick WAWAW now and again. Watching Wednesday guaranteed goals at either end, and I backed them regularly in my both teams to score tips each week. If they are going to go up, expect it to be anything but conventional.

The excitement began when Dejphon Chansiri walked in the door during the 14/15 season. The Thai Tuna magnate has stated the he wants the club back in The Premier League by 2017 so hasn’t got long. He quickly replaced the dour Stuart Gray with Carlos Carvalhal, invested in the playing squad and brought a feel good factor which had been fading under Mandaric. Carvalhal maybe the master stroke.

The Portuguese Manager has vast experience from his time at Braga, Besiktas and even a stint with his Countries Under 21’s. The most likeable aspect about Carvalhal is that he sets his teams up to play attacking football and entertain. He’s made no secret of his aims stating ‘the most important thing is our fans come to all our games and enjoy the football we are playing’. Mission accomplished to date so far then.

With the squad at his disposal and Chansiri’s aim, he may have to go one better this time. Fernando Forestieri is arguably The League’s most talented player and fortunately they have the riches to keep hold of him. Gary Hooper gets goals at this level and the recent addition of Steven Fletcher on a free looks good. In Barry Bannan they have one of the few midfielders at this level who can dictate play and supply the bullets for those front three. Defenders will be having sleepless nights no doubt.

Despite the playoff defeat hurting as much as it did, we progressed further under Carlos Carvalhal than anyone could have predicted. Wednesday need sensible additions to the existing squad to make that final step forward which was missing last season.

While we have some extremely talented players at the club like Barry Bannan, Tom Lees, Keiren Westwood and Fernando Forestieri we were a couple of players short overall.

“As things stand we need a left back as we only have two, Claude Dielna and Jeremy Helan who were both deemed surplus to requirements in part last season. Daniel Pudil was rumoured to have agreed a deal to come back full time and plug that gap but he hasn’t yet. Central midfielder, Alex Lopez has returned to Celta Vigo but as good as he was I can’t see him returning, we could do with a really powerful player in central midfield; someone like the man who consigned us to that Wembley defeat, Mo Diame to play alongside Bannan in the engine room.

We have already added Steven Fletcher to the striking department which looks very healthy with Gary Hooper, Lucas Joao and Atdhe Nuhiu all vying for a starting spot as well as the option of putting Forestieri up there too. We don’t need a revolution; we need a little evolution. The team grew together last season, it was something that every fan was immensely proud of and it was there for all to see.

A decent recruitment drive before the big kick off would go a long way to reinvigorating everyone in and out of the club. There’s arguably more pressure on us this season than ever before to keep up standards set last year and then bettering them. Is it possible? Last season we dared to dream and almost achieved the seemingly impossible.. So why not…” Terry – OwlsOnline.com

The main worry for Wednesday fans would be their away form. This will have to improve as you can’t rely on a bouncing Hillsborough alone to carry you up. One or two defensive signings and another midfielder may well see their odds slashed. Teams could start to sit off them or place people on Forestieri and Bannan, so Carvalhal may face a new challenge here. Not the bookies favourites by any means, Wednesday will still be the choice of neutrals for their football alone.

Brighton to be promoted 7/2

After last seasons play off heartache, it’s a surprise to many that their odds have drifted so far. It may possibly be down to a belief that The Seagulls just lacked that bit of experience at the right time. Having looked at them carefully, this is my outsider and a club that may do well being in the shadows of those with a higher profile.

“If Brighton can keep all of the players who are currently subject to hostile bids from Premier League clubs, the season should be a good one for the Albion. The addition of Glenn Murray to the squad is a major boost, and Chris Hughton is looking to add to his options. This season will be tougher, not so much for because of the relegated clubs from the Premier League, but more that Brighton were woefully under-considered last season; most teams won’t make that mistake again this time around.” Alan – AlbionRoar.co.uk

The additions they have made seem wise with both Glenn Murray and Steve Sidwell’s loan moves being made permanent. Sidwell is an experienced midfielder and Murray knows what it takes to score goals at this level, as he’s proved in the past with Palace.

Chris Hughton did a fantastic job at Newcastle and won them promotion at the first time of asking. He’s an understated and quiet character, but this maybe exactly what Brighton need. His experience of this league, holding onto the Lewis Dunk and the new additions could just tip the balance in their favour. Brighton fans will want to fly under the radar here, but you can’t count them out either.

In the most predictably unpredictable league in football, it wouldn’t surprise people if any of these teams were to get promoted. The lottery of the play-offs and the sheer volume of games means that you can’t be certain of anything. Fans of Cardiff have got the right to scream where’s our section? Leeds and Forest fans just want to scream in general with the way it’s gone for them over recent years. It could be easier to just close your eyes and pick. The thing is….closing your eyes is the last thing you want to do in what maybe the most exciting Championship season yet!